How TXT Has Traded Around Earnings
Over the last eight reported quarters, TXT beat the consensus estimate seven times, an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 5.3%. The four most recent releases all cleared estimates: on 2026-07-28 actual EPS was $1.62 versus the $1.55 estimate (4.5% surprise), on 2026-04-30 it was $1.45 versus $1.30 (11.5% surprise), on 2026-01-28 it was $1.73 versus $1.70 (1.8% surprise), and on 2025-10-23 it was $1.55 versus $1.46 (6.2% surprise). Despite that consistency, the average 5-day price move after earnings across those eight quarters is -0.02%, classified as flat.
The one-day reactions show how little the headline beat has dictated direction. The 2026-07-28 beat produced a -4.79% next-day drop and a null% change over five sessions. The 2026-04-30 beat sank the stock -1.29% the next day and -4.55% over five sessions. By contrast, the 2026-01-28 beat lifted the stock 1.19% one day later and 4.54% over five sessions, while the 2025-10-23 beat delivered a 2.2% next-day gain but only a -0.06% five-day drift. The message from the data is that positive EPS surprises have repeatedly been met with selling or limited follow-through.
Options-Flow Dynamics Ahead of 2026-10-22
TXT's next scheduled earnings release is on 2026-10-22 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.52. Options activity into that event will likely price in a binary outcome around the headline number and any guidance commentary. The historical five-day post-earnings range extends from -4.55% to +4.54%, so realized event volatility has been meaningful. Traders watching implied volatility can compare the priced-in move against those realized figures.
Because TXT has beaten in 7 of 8 quarters by an average of 5.3%, directional flow ahead of the report may skew call-heavy. But the flat average five-day drift of -0.02% means the post-beat reward for raw directional premium has historically been weak. Flow that hedges long-gamma exposure, trades elevated straddle prices against muted follow-through, or defines risk with spreads is more consistent with this data set. Macro noise in the Industrials/Aerospace & Defense sector can also amplify or dilute the earnings-specific move.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
The current technical snapshot for TXT is price $86.38, 50-day EMA $90.60, and RSI 42.3. Price is below the 50-day EMA and momentum is neutral to soft, so any earnings reaction is occurring against a short-term backdrop that is not strongly trend-driven. A disciplined trader watches how the stock interacts with the $90.60 area after the report, not just whether EPS comes in above or below the $1.52 estimate.
Next, compare the options-implied one-day or five-day move to the historical distribution. If the implied move is wide versus the -0.02% average five-day drift and the mixed one-day record, the market may be overpricing event volatility; if it is tight, the risk of a larger directional repricing may be underpriced. Finally, watch whether the first-day reaction persists into the second and third sessions, because TXT's five-day drift has frequently reversed or erased the initial move.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is TXT's earnings beat rate and average surprise over the last eight quarters?
TXT beat the estimate in 7 of the last 8 reported quarters, an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 5.3%. The four most recent quarters were all beats: 4.5% on 2026-07-28, 11.5% on 2026-04-30, 1.8% on 2026-01-28, and 6.2% on 2025-10-23.
How has TXT stock performed after its recent earnings beats?
The average 5-day post-earnings move across the last eight quarters is -0.02%, classified as flat. One-day reactions have varied: -4.79% on 2026-07-28, -1.29% on 2026-04-30, +1.19% on 2026-01-28, and +2.2% on 2025-10-23. The five-day moves range from -4.55% to +4.54%.
When is the next TXT earnings report and what is the estimate?
TXT is scheduled to report on 2026-10-22 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.52. As of the latest snapshot, the stock is trading at $86.38, below its 50-day EMA of $90.60, with an RSI of 42.3.
For a deeper dive, including the latest analyst revisions and full institutional positioning, readers should consult the platform's complete institutional verdict.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.62 | $1.55 | +4.5% | -4.79% | null% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.45 | $1.3 | +11.5% | -1.29% | -4.55% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.73 | $1.7 | +1.8% | +1.19% | +4.54% |
| 2025-10-23 | $1.55 | $1.46 | +6.2% | +2.2% | -0.06% |
| 2025-07-24 | $1.55 | $1.45 | +6.9% | - | - |
| 2025-04-24 | $1.28 | $1.14 | +12.3% | - | - |
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